Bitcoin has slipped below the key level of 100,000 as selling pressure has increased over the past few days. It has also broken below the 0.50 Fibonacci correction level at 99,600, which traders have watched for months. This zone acted as an important balance area and a decision point for the uptrend that ran from April to October.
The drop toward 97,500 after the break shows that sellers still guide the market. Rising volume on the daily chart supports this view and signals that the move has a more institutional character rather than random selling.
Short-term moving averages show a clear downward setup. The 8-day EMA stays below the 21-day EMA, and both averages slope lower. trades well under these two short-term averages and also under the 3-month EMA near the 110k area. This confirms a firm downward trend on the daily chart, and any bounce from here remains an intermediate move inside this broader decline.
For now, the first resistance in any rebound sits in the 99,500 to 100,000 band. Above that, the 105,000 to 106,000 band acts as the key threshold that aligns with the neckline. Until the price climbs back above both these zones, upward moves will mainly serve as selling opportunities from a technical perspective.
Market Structure Shows Where The Declines May Slow
The Shoulder Over Shoulder pattern on the daily chart now looks complete. The head of the pattern sits near the peak around 124,000, and the left and right shoulders formed in the 112,000 to 114,000 area. After the price moved below the 105,500 to 106,500 range, which acts as the neckline, BTC made several attempts to climb back into this zone. Each attempt met with fresh selling pressure and the price moved lower again.
This behaviour shows that the retest phase after the breakout has already played out and the downside risks remain in place from a technical point of view.
The first strong support on the way down sits in the 93,600 to 93,700 band. This is the Fib 0.618 retracement that we highlighted earlier. Once the price slipped below the 0.50 level, the chance of a move toward this zone grew in a clear way, especially with the rise in volume. This band needs close attention because it often acts as both Fibonacci support and an intermediate pause during sideways phases over the past few months. It may attract short-term buyers again.
If this area gives way, the next level on the radar is the 85,000 to 86,000 region. This aligns with the Fib 0.786 retracement and the theoretical target of the Shoulder Over Shoulder pattern. It forms a critical support cluster where the market may attempt to search for a deeper and more meaningful bottom, and where medium-term buyers may step in again.
The daily Stochastic RSI stays in the oversold zone and moves sideways. This behaviour is common during a downtrend. It signals pressure rather than an automatic pivot. A bottom-up turn in the Stochastic RSI along with the price holding firm near 93,600 could set the stage for a sharp short-term reaction rally. This signal has not appeared yet. Indicators point to continued weakness and the price action supports the same view.
Bitcoin’s Weekly Outlook
On the weekly chart, the wider bullish channel that Bitcoin has followed since early 2023 remains in place. Even so, the price has entered a sharper corrective phase after slipping below the middle band of this channel. The 1.618 Fibonacci extension level at 102060 has worked as support and as a pivot zone in recent weeks.
The current weekly candle sits under this level, which shows that the correction now carries weight on both the daily and weekly time frames.
On the moving averages front, the price has stayed under the 8 and 21 week EMAs for a month, and the averages have moved into a negative crossover. This shows that the trend has entered a slowdown phase. If the 88 to 90 thousand band also gives way, the decline can stretch toward the 85 to 86 thousand region, which aligns with both the OBO target and the channel structure.
The weekly Stochastic RSI has slipped deeper into oversold territory. When this indicator finishes its move at the bottom and turns upward, it often signals the early stages of a new medium-term bullish wave. At this point, though, both the daily and weekly charts show that the price is still drifting toward lower support, which means the bottom formation has not formed. For now, the weekly indicator mainly shows that the correction phase continues.
Bitcoin’s Future Outlook
The short-term direction for Bitcoin sits below the 99,500 to 100,000 band. As long as the price stays under this zone, the chart signals a move toward the Fib 0.618 support near 93,600. The area can trigger short-lived reactions, yet the broader bearish setup stays in place unless the price delivers firm daily or weekly closes above the neckline at 105,000 to 106,000.
The market still moves under the weight of the OBO pattern and remains in a sharp intermediate correction inside the wider bullish cycle. Bitcoin will need higher lows and a clear reversal structure on both the daily and weekly charts before the market can breathe again.
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Disclaimer: This article is written for informational purposes only. It is not intended to encourage the purchase of assets in any way, nor does it constitute a solicitation, offer, recommendation or suggestion to invest. I would like to remind you that all assets are evaluated from multiple perspectives and are highly risky, so any investment decision and the associated risk rests with the investor. We also do not provide any investment advisory services.
