- The closely watched US February CPI report comes out on Wednesday morning.
- Headline annual inflation is seen rising 2.4%, and core CPI is forecast to increase 2.5%.
- Here’s what to watch and how markets could react.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release the Consumer Price Index () data for February on Wednesday at 8:30 AM ET.
This report will provide insights into inflation trends amid a resilient economy, following January’s softer-than-expected readings.
Here’s what to watch and how markets could react.
Key Forecasts
- Headline CPI: Economists anticipate a increase of 0.3% month-over-month, keeping at 2.4%.
- Core CPI (excluding food and energy) is also expected to remain contained, possibly ticking in at 0.2% and 2.5% .
Source: Investing.com
Under the hood, markets will focus much more on core services and shelter than the headline number. The Fed’s de facto favorite metric—core services ex‑housing, or “supercore”—is where wage and labor‑market pressures show up.
Beyond the Print: Stagflation Fears Loom
Recent news highlights market anxiety over stagflation—a toxic mix of high inflation and slowing growth—especially with oil volatility and lingering AI-driven labor disruption worries.
External shocks like the ongoing U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict could overshadow the data. briefly jumped to as high as $120 earlier this week due to Middle East tensions, before pulling back to the mid $80s.
Source: Investing.com
This price shock won’t fully hit today’s CPI. The full impact will be more pronounced in the April and May CPI reports, assuming prices remain elevated.
Impact on the Stock Market
Equities have held near their recent record highs, but the remains vulnerable to CPI surprises.
Source: Investing.com
- In-Line or Softer Print: This could support a relief rally in equities, as it would bolster expectations for Fed policy easing in 2026.
- Sectors like technology and consumer discretionary might benefit most, given their sensitivity to interest rate outlooks.
- Hotter-Than-Expected Print: A surprise uptick could trigger a sell-off, as it might delay anticipated rate cuts and heighten recession fears amid geopolitical tensions. Historically, inflation beats have pressured the S&P 500 by 1-2% in the immediate aftermath, amplifying volatility in rate-sensitive areas like real estate and utilities.
Fed Reaction: What’s Priced In?
The CPI report lands just days before the next Fed meeting on March 18, with traders and policymakers both laser-focused on any sign that sticky inflation could delay rate cuts. Persistent inflation above 2% might keep rates on hold longer, especially under incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.
However, if February CPI confirms disinflation, it could open the door to 1-2 quarter-point cuts by mid-2026 (e.g., June or July), supporting growth amid a softening labor market.
As of now, markets price in just one for 2026, likely not until October. A hot CPI could push that out further; a soft print might revive hopes for earlier easing.
Source: Investing.com
Key Takeaway
Markets are on edge for a reason—one unexpected number could swing the Fed’s timetable and send stocks surging or sliding.
Investors should approach the release with clear expectations about potential outcomes and pre-planned responses rather than reactive trading. The specific numbers matter less than how they fit within the broader inflation narrative and policy framework.
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Disclosure: This is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research.
At the time of writing, I am long on the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq 100 via the SPDR® S&P 500 ETF, and the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF. I am also long on the Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF. I regularly rebalance my portfolio of individual stocks and ETFs based on ongoing risk assessment of both the macroeconomic environment and companies’ financials.
The views discussed in this article are solely the opinion of the author and should not be taken as investment advice.
Follow Jesse Cohen on X/Twitter @JesseCohenInv for more stock market analysis and insight.
