{"id":4627,"date":"2026-06-11T21:15:35","date_gmt":"2026-06-11T21:15:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.finznest.com\/blog\/polymarket-traders-think-spacex-will-cross-2-trillion-market-cap\/"},"modified":"2026-06-11T21:15:35","modified_gmt":"2026-06-11T21:15:35","slug":"polymarket-traders-think-spacex-will-cross-2-trillion-market-cap","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.finznest.com\/blog\/polymarket-traders-think-spacex-will-cross-2-trillion-market-cap\/","title":{"rendered":"Polymarket traders think SpaceX will cross $2 trillion market cap"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"RegularArticle-ArticleBody-5\" data-module=\"ArticleBody\" data-test=\"articleBody-2\" data-analytics=\"RegularArticle-articleBody-5-2\"><span class=\"HighlightShare-hidden\" style=\"top:0;left:0\"\/><\/p>\n<div class=\"InlineImage-imageEmbed\" id=\"ArticleBody-InlineImage-108309017\" data-test=\"InlineImage\">\n<div class=\"InlineImage-wrapper\">\n<div>\n<p>SpaceX facilities in Hawthorne, California, US, on Monday, April 13, 2026. <\/p>\n<p>Ethan Swope | Bloomberg | Getty Images<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p><span class=\"QuoteInBody-quoteNameContainer\" data-test=\"QuoteInBody\" id=\"RegularArticle-QuoteInBody-1\">SpaceX<span class=\"QuoteInBody-inlineButton\"><span class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-watchlistContainer\" id=\"-WatchlistDropdown\" data-analytics-id=\"-WatchlistDropdown\"><button class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-watchlistButton\" aria-label=\"Add To Watchlist\" data-testid=\"dropdown-btn\"><span class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-addWatchListFromTag\"\/><\/button><\/span><\/span><\/span> is set to debut on the Nasdaq on Friday, and traders on prediction market platform Polymarket are confident shares will pop.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The Elon Musk-led rocket company will is expected to price at $135 per share, already giving it a market value of $1.77 trillion. But traders think there&#8217;s a high probability it&#8217;ll zoom well north of there on irs first day of trading. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>There&#8217;s an 84% chance that SpaceX will close above $1.8 trillion in market cap, according to Polymarket traders. Odds that SpaceX will surpass $2 trillion stand at 69%. <\/p>\n<p>Based on an expected initial market cap of $1.77 trillion, a capitalization of roughly $2 trillion would equate to a 13% rally in SpaceX Friday. Pre-IPO perpetual futures on Hyperliquid indicate that SpaceX could jump more than 20% in its first day of trading.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>Traders are more that SpaceX will close with a market value above $2.2 trillion, giving it less than a 50-50 chance.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>A close above $2 trillion would put SpaceX in an exclusive club. Only five other U.S. companies \u2014 <span class=\"QuoteInBody-quoteNameContainer\" data-test=\"QuoteInBody\" id=\"RegularArticle-QuoteInBody-5\">Nvidia<span class=\"QuoteInBody-inlineButton\"><span class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-watchlistContainer\" id=\"-WatchlistDropdown\" data-analytics-id=\"-WatchlistDropdown\"><button class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-watchlistButton\" aria-label=\"Add To Watchlist\" data-testid=\"dropdown-btn\"><span class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-addWatchListFromTag\"\/><\/button><\/span><\/span><\/span>, <span class=\"QuoteInBody-quoteNameContainer\" data-test=\"QuoteInBody\" id=\"RegularArticle-QuoteInBody-6\">Apple<span class=\"QuoteInBody-inlineButton\"><span class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-watchlistContainer\" id=\"-WatchlistDropdown\" data-analytics-id=\"-WatchlistDropdown\"><button class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-watchlistButton\" aria-label=\"Add To Watchlist\" data-testid=\"dropdown-btn\"><span class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-addWatchListFromTag\"\/><\/button><\/span><\/span><\/span>, <span class=\"QuoteInBody-quoteNameContainer\" data-test=\"QuoteInBody\" id=\"RegularArticle-QuoteInBody-7\">Alphabet<span class=\"QuoteInBody-inlineButton\"><span class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-watchlistContainer\" id=\"-WatchlistDropdown\" data-analytics-id=\"-WatchlistDropdown\"><button class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-watchlistButton\" aria-label=\"Add To Watchlist\" data-testid=\"dropdown-btn\"><span class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-addWatchListFromTag\"\/><\/button><\/span><\/span><\/span>, <span class=\"QuoteInBody-quoteNameContainer\" data-test=\"QuoteInBody\" id=\"RegularArticle-QuoteInBody-8\">Microsoft<span class=\"QuoteInBody-inlineButton\"><span class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-watchlistContainer\" id=\"-WatchlistDropdown\" data-analytics-id=\"-WatchlistDropdown\"><button class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-watchlistButton\" aria-label=\"Add To Watchlist\" data-testid=\"dropdown-btn\"><span class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-addWatchListFromTag\"\/><\/button><\/span><\/span><\/span> and <span class=\"QuoteInBody-quoteNameContainer\" data-test=\"QuoteInBody\" id=\"RegularArticle-QuoteInBody-9\">Amazon<span class=\"QuoteInBody-inlineButton\"><span class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-watchlistContainer\" id=\"-WatchlistDropdown\" data-analytics-id=\"-WatchlistDropdown\"><button class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-watchlistButton\" aria-label=\"Add To Watchlist\" data-testid=\"dropdown-btn\"><span class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-addWatchListFromTag\"\/><\/button><\/span><\/span><\/span> \u2014 have valuations north of $2 trillion.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>SpaceX $2 trillion would also put it ahead of chip giant <span class=\"QuoteInBody-quoteNameContainer\" data-test=\"QuoteInBody\" id=\"RegularArticle-QuoteInBody-10\">Broadcom<span class=\"QuoteInBody-inlineButton\"><span class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-watchlistContainer\" id=\"-WatchlistDropdown\" data-analytics-id=\"-WatchlistDropdown\"><button class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-watchlistButton\" aria-label=\"Add To Watchlist\" data-testid=\"dropdown-btn\"><span class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-addWatchListFromTag\"\/><\/button><\/span><\/span><\/span>&#8216;s valuation of $1.85 trillion. Even at the expected initial valuation of $1.77 trillion, SpaceX would prove larger than Musk&#8217;s electrical vehicle flagship. Tesla&#8217;s market value was about $1.72 trillion late Thursday, according to FactSet data.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"ArticleBody-googlePreferredSourceContainer\" data-module=\"GooglePreferredSource\" data-id=\"RegularArticle-GooglePreferredSource-5\">Choose CNBC as your preferred source on Google and never miss a moment from the most trusted name in business news.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>SpaceX facilities in Hawthorne, California, US, on Monday, April 13, 2026. Ethan Swope | Bloomberg | Getty Images SpaceX is set to debut on the Nasdaq on Friday, and traders on prediction market platform Polymarket are confident shares will pop.\u00a0 The Elon Musk-led rocket company will is expected to price at $135 per share, already [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4628,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[753,3449,285,1639,2029,1127,2585],"class_list":["post-4627","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blog","tag-cap","tag-cross","tag-market","tag-polymarket","tag-spacex","tag-traders","tag-trillion"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.finznest.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4627","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.finznest.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.finznest.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.finznest.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.finznest.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4627"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.finznest.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4627\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.finznest.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4628"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.finznest.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4627"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.finznest.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4627"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.finznest.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4627"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}