{"id":4718,"date":"2026-06-23T19:08:11","date_gmt":"2026-06-23T19:08:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.finznest.com\/blog\/prediction-market-traders-expectations-for-the-ny-primaries\/"},"modified":"2026-06-23T19:08:11","modified_gmt":"2026-06-23T19:08:11","slug":"prediction-market-traders-expectations-for-the-ny-primaries","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.finznest.com\/blog\/prediction-market-traders-expectations-for-the-ny-primaries\/","title":{"rendered":"Prediction market traders’ expectations for the NY primaries"},"content":{"rendered":"
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State Representative Claire Valdez, a Democrat from New York and US House candidate, from left, Brad Lander, former New York City comptroller and US Democratic House candidate for New York, Zohran Mamdani, mayor of New York, and Darializa Avila Chevalier, US Democratic House candidate for New York, during a “Get Out The Vote” rally ahead of a primary election at Kings Theater in the Brooklyn borough of New York, US, on Thursday, June 18, 2026. <\/p>\n

Adam Gray | Bloomberg | Getty Images<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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On Tuesday night, New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani faces his first major electoral test since his election in November 2025. This time, while Mamdani isn’t on the ballot, his power to swing voters is.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Mamdani has endorsed three candidates in competitive congressional primaries in the city: former New York City Comptroller Brad Lander in New York’s 10th congressional district, New York State Assemblywoman Claire Valdez in NY-7 and first-time candidate Darializa Avila Chevalier in NY-13.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Traders on prediction market platform Kalshi think the mayor will go two for three.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Speculators place 54% odds that Valdez and Lander will be victorious, while Chevalier loses. They also give a 28% chance that all three candidates win, and a 20% chance that only Lander wins.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Those odds are based on individual combo contracts, where all three events of each individual candidate either winning or losing need to happen for the trades to resolve to “yes.” Outcomes on the combo contracts are verified by the New York State Board of Elections.<\/p>\n

Odds and gambling platforms do not use methodologies used by traditional political polling, and therefore are not substitutes for political polls.<\/p>\n

Lander, an ally of Mamdani, is challenging Democratic incumbent Rep. Dan Goldman. Goldman has been under fire from left-leaning critics for his support of Israel in the district that includes downtown Manhattan and Park Slope in Brooklyn.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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On a contract that asks if a candidate will win the democratic nomination in NY-10, Kalshi traders give Lander a near-certain chance of winning the Democratic nomination in the district. Outcomes on individual nominee contracts are confirmed by the Democratic party.<\/p>\n

Valdez is seeking to replace retiring Rep. Nydia Vel\u00e1zquez in NY-7 \u2014 which includes Williamsburg in Brooklyn and Long Island City in Queens \u2014 though Vel\u00e1zquez endorsed Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso. Reynoso has the backing of the progressive Working Families Party, while Valdez has the backing of the Democratic Socialists of America.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Traders on Kalshi think Valdez is favored; they are giving her a nearly 80% chance of winning the Democratic nomination.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Lastly, Chevalier \u2014 also backed by the Democratic Socialists of America \u2014 is seeking to oust incumbent Rep. Adriano Espaillat, chair of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus. NY-13 covers Harlem and Washington Heights in Manhattan, as well as parts of the Bronx. Traders on Kalshi give Espaillat two-in-three odds of fending off the challenge from Chevalier.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, there’s another contentious primary in NY-12, which covers Midtown and the Upper East and West sides in Manhattan. Mamdani didn’t endorse a candidate in that race.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Rivaling artificial intelligence super PACs are seeking to boost and suppress the candidacy of Alex Bores, a New York State Assemblyman, who has been a fervent supporter of AI regulations. OpenAI-backed Leading the Future has spent $8 million opposing Bores, while Anthropic-backed Public First Action has spent $11 million supporting him.\u00a0<\/p>\n

However, Kalshi traders think that fellow state Assemblyman Micah Lasher is favored in the NY-12 contest, giving him a 74% chance of winning the Democratic nomination.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Choose CNBC as your preferred source on Google and never miss a moment from the most trusted name in business news.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

State Representative Claire Valdez, a Democrat from New York and US House candidate, from left, Brad Lander, former New York City comptroller and US Democratic House candidate for New York, Zohran Mamdani, mayor of New York, and Darializa Avila Chevalier, US Democratic House candidate for New York, during a “Get Out The Vote” rally ahead […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4719,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[648,285,320,3509,1127],"class_list":["post-4718","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blog","tag-expectations","tag-market","tag-prediction","tag-primaries","tag-traders"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.finznest.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4718","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.finznest.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.finznest.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.finznest.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.finznest.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4718"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.finznest.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4718\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.finznest.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4719"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.finznest.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4718"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.finznest.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4718"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.finznest.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4718"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}