{"id":4820,"date":"2026-07-04T13:53:53","date_gmt":"2026-07-04T13:53:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.finznest.com\/blog\/2026-fifa-world-cup-boosts-prediction-market-volumes\/"},"modified":"2026-07-04T13:53:53","modified_gmt":"2026-07-04T13:53:53","slug":"2026-fifa-world-cup-boosts-prediction-market-volumes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.finznest.com\/blog\/2026-fifa-world-cup-boosts-prediction-market-volumes\/","title":{"rendered":"2026 FIFA World Cup boosts prediction market volumes"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"RegularArticle-ArticleBody-5\" data-module=\"ArticleBody\" data-test=\"articleBody-2\" data-analytics=\"RegularArticle-articleBody-5-2\"><span class=\"HighlightShare-hidden\" style=\"top:0;left:0\"\/><\/p>\n<div class=\"InlineImage-imageEmbed\" id=\"ArticleBody-InlineImage-108270194\" data-test=\"InlineImage\">\n<div class=\"InlineImage-wrapper\">\n<div>\n<p>In this photo illustration, Apps for online prediction market sites are shown on an electronic device on Feb. 25, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois. <\/p>\n<p>Scott Olson | Getty Images<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>The 2026 FIFA World Cup was forecast to be the biggest gambling event in history. For prediction market platforms, that&#8217;s led to soaring trading volumes in June.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Kalshi saw more than $31 billion in notional volume during the month, a more than 70% increase from May&#8217;s total of $17.9 billion, according to user collected data on Dune Analytics. The platform has consistently managed volume over $1 billion daily since the soccer tournament began on June 11.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Polymarket&#8217;s international event contract exchange set a new record high in monthly volume, with notional trading exceeding $10.8 billion in June. That reverses a downtrend in April and May, when volume fell.\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>Meanwhile, Polymarket&#8217;s U.S. platform did north of $3.5 billion in notional volume during the month, up from $1.77 billion in May.\u00a0<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"ArticleBody-smallSubtitle\">Team USA Monday<\/h3>\n<p>Team USA is set to play Belgium in the round of 16 on Monday night. More than $64 million on Kalshi and $122 million on Polymarket has been traded on whether the U.S. will win the tournament, though odds of that happening are just 4.3% and 3%, respectively, on each platform.<\/p>\n<p>World Cup enthusiasm has given a jolt to prediction market platform Rothera, a joint venture between Susquehanna International Group and <span class=\"QuoteInBody-quoteNameContainer\" data-test=\"QuoteInBody\" id=\"RegularArticle-QuoteInBody-8\">Robinhood<span class=\"QuoteInBody-inlineButton\"><span class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-watchlistContainer\" id=\"-WatchlistDropdown\" data-analytics-id=\"-WatchlistDropdown\"><button class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-watchlistButton\" aria-label=\"Add To Watchlist\" data-testid=\"dropdown-btn\"><span class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-addWatchListFromTag\"\/><\/button><\/span><\/span><\/span>. Rothera debuted in June, when Robinhood began routing certain World Cup contracts on its brokerage to the platform.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Rothera saw $2 billion in notional trading volume during the month, and now accounts for 7% of U.S. prediction market volume, according to Bank of America.\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>All platforms leaned into the World Cup to boost traffic. Polymarket launched a competition to reward up to $2 million to whoever can craft a perfect World Cup knockout round bracket. On the Apple app store, Kalshi boasted that users can &#8220;Trade the World Cup&#8221; in the title of its mobile platform.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Heightened open interest \u2014 the total number of active, unsettled contracts on the platforms \u2014 may also reflect World Cup excitement. Kalshi open interest is now above $1 billion. Polymarket open interest is just under $400 million \u2014 elevated, but about where its international platform has been for the last few months.<\/p>\n<p>Sports were the focus last month for event contract exchanges, but how the platforms handled the surge in volume may be a sign of how they manage other contract topics in the future.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Asaf Meir, CEO at Solidus Labs \u2014 a market integrity company that has a partnership with Kalshi \u2014 said the World Cup is a key moment for platforms as both regulators and institutions are eying how they perform.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Outside observers are asking, &#8220;Is it safe enough? Is it mature enough? Does it have enough volume?,&#8221; Meir said. &#8220;The World Cup is such a huge pressure test to see whether indeed prediction markets are able to deliver their word on maintaining a level playing field for all investors for a long period of time in a sustained high-volume environment.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><em>Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"ArticleBody-googlePreferredSourceContainer\" data-module=\"GooglePreferredSource\" data-id=\"RegularArticle-GooglePreferredSource-5\">Choose CNBC as your preferred source on Google and never miss a moment from the most trusted name in business news.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In this photo illustration, Apps for online prediction market sites are shown on an electronic device on Feb. 25, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois. Scott Olson | Getty Images The 2026 FIFA World Cup was forecast to be the biggest gambling event in history. For prediction market platforms, that&#8217;s led to soaring trading volumes in June.\u00a0 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4821,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[2989,3142,3145,285,320,3579,791],"class_list":["post-4820","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blog","tag-boosts","tag-cup","tag-fifa","tag-market","tag-prediction","tag-volumes","tag-world"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.finznest.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4820","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.finznest.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.finznest.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.finznest.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.finznest.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4820"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.finznest.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4820\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.finznest.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4821"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.finznest.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4820"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.finznest.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4820"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.finznest.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4820"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}