{"id":4974,"date":"2026-07-23T17:26:14","date_gmt":"2026-07-23T17:26:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.finznest.com\/blog\/odds-surge-for-hike-as-oil-rips-higher\/"},"modified":"2026-07-23T17:26:14","modified_gmt":"2026-07-23T17:26:14","slug":"odds-surge-for-hike-as-oil-rips-higher","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.finznest.com\/blog\/odds-surge-for-hike-as-oil-rips-higher\/","title":{"rendered":"Odds surge for hike as oil rips higher"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"RegularArticle-ArticleBody-5\" data-module=\"ArticleBody\" data-test=\"articleBody-2\" data-analytics=\"RegularArticle-articleBody-5-2\"><span class=\"HighlightShare-hidden\" style=\"top:0;left:0\"\/><\/p>\n<div class=\"InlineImage-imageEmbed\" id=\"ArticleBody-InlineImage-108323516\" data-test=\"InlineImage\">\n<div class=\"InlineImage-wrapper\">\n<div>\n<p>A television station broadcasts Kevin Warsh, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, speaking after a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, US, on Wednesday, June 17, 2026. <\/p>\n<p>Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>Investors are increasingly preparing for the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates as oil prices climb.<\/p>\n<p>Fed funds futures are pricing in a roughly 82% likelihood that the central bank lifts borrowing costs at its September policy meeting, according to CME&#8217;s FedWatch tool. A week ago, those odds sat below 53%.<\/p>\n<p>The central bank is still broadly expected to keep rates unchanged at the current 3.50% to 3.75% at its gathering next week. But even then, there&#8217;s a growing minority planning for an increase: Fed funds futures trading indicates a nearly 38% probability of a quarter percentage point hike, up from less than 12% a week ago.<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"QuoteInBody-quoteNameContainer\" data-test=\"QuoteInBody\" id=\"RegularArticle-QuoteInBody-2\">Brent<span class=\"QuoteInBody-inlineButton\"><span class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-watchlistContainer\" id=\"-WatchlistDropdown\" data-analytics-id=\"-WatchlistDropdown\"><button class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-watchlistButton\" aria-label=\"Add To Watchlist\" data-testid=\"dropdown-btn\"><span class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-addWatchListFromTag\"\/><\/button><\/span><\/span><\/span>, the global crude benchmark, hit $100 a barrel on Thursday for the first time since late May amid a new round of tit-for-tat attacks between the U.S. and Iran. The average price for a gallon of gasoline in the U.S. reached $4 per gallon this week \u2014 the highest in more than a month, according to AAA.<\/p>\n<p>Thursday&#8217;s employment data bolstered the view that the Fed can focus more on inflation \u2014 which could accelerate as energy prices climb \u2014 than the health of the labor market.<\/p>\n<p>Initial jobless claims dropped to 187,000 in the week ended July 18, the Labor Department reported. That was the fewest claims since 1969, when the U.S. population was 60% of what it is today. <\/p>\n<p>&#8220;At the moment, the outlook for economic growth is showing some signs of overheating if today&#8217;s weekly jobless claims figures can be believed,&#8221; said Christopher S. Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS. &#8220;But for how long is the question if energy prices continue to spiral upward.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Rising expectations for a rate increase may be adding to the downward pressure on the stock market Thursday, according to Larry Tentarelli, chief technical strategist at the Blue Chip Daily Trend Report. That&#8217;s on top of the breakout in oil prices and Treasury yields, and <span class=\"QuoteInBody-quoteNameContainer\" data-test=\"QuoteInBody\" id=\"RegularArticle-QuoteInBody-7\">Alphabet<span class=\"QuoteInBody-inlineButton\"><span class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-watchlistContainer\" id=\"-WatchlistDropdown\" data-analytics-id=\"-WatchlistDropdown\"><button class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-watchlistButton\" aria-label=\"Add To Watchlist\" data-testid=\"dropdown-btn\"><span class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-addWatchListFromTag\"\/><\/button><\/span><\/span><\/span>&#8216;s post-earnings swoon, he said.<\/p>\n<p>The blue-chip <span class=\"QuoteInBody-quoteNameContainer\" data-test=\"QuoteInBody\" id=\"RegularArticle-QuoteInBody-8\">Dow Jones Industrial Average<span class=\"QuoteInBody-inlineButton\"><span class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-watchlistContainer\" id=\"-WatchlistDropdown\" data-analytics-id=\"-WatchlistDropdown\"><button class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-watchlistButton\" aria-label=\"Add To Watchlist\" data-testid=\"dropdown-btn\"><span class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-addWatchListFromTag\"\/><\/button><\/span><\/span><\/span> tumbled more than 600 points in midday trading. The <span class=\"QuoteInBody-quoteNameContainer\" data-test=\"QuoteInBody\" id=\"RegularArticle-QuoteInBody-9\">Nasdaq Composite<span class=\"QuoteInBody-inlineButton\"><span class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-watchlistContainer\" id=\"-WatchlistDropdown\" data-analytics-id=\"-WatchlistDropdown\"><button class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-watchlistButton\" aria-label=\"Add To Watchlist\" data-testid=\"dropdown-btn\"><span class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-addWatchListFromTag\"\/><\/button><\/span><\/span><\/span> \u2014 heavily weighted to technology stocks that can be sensitive to higher borrowing costs \u2014 shed nearly 3%.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;You really just have a perfect storm of headwinds right now,&#8221; Tentarelli said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"Collapsible-proliveCollapsableContainer\" role=\"button\" tabindex=\"0\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"256\" height=\"256\" viewbox=\"0 0 256 256\" aria-labelledby=\"title desc\" role=\"img\" focusable=\"false\" preserveaspectratio=\"xMinYMin\" class=\"Collapsible-stockChartIcon\"><title>Stock Chart Icon<\/title><desc>Stock chart icon<\/desc><g transform=\"translate(1.4065934065934016 1.4065934065934016) scale(2.81 2.81)\"><path d=\"M 87.994 0 H 69.342 c -1.787 0 -2.682 2.16 -1.418 3.424 l 5.795 5.795 l -33.82 33.82 L 28.056 31.196 l -3.174 -3.174 c -1.074 -1.074 -2.815 -1.074 -3.889 0 L 0.805 48.209 c -1.074 1.074 -1.074 2.815 0 3.889 l 3.174 3.174 c 1.074 1.074 2.815 1.074 3.889 0 l 15.069 -15.069 l 14.994 14.994 c 1.074 1.074 2.815 1.074 3.889 0 l 1.614 -1.614 c 0.083 -0.066 0.17 -0.125 0.247 -0.202 l 37.1 -37.1 l 5.795 5.795 C 87.84 23.34 90 22.445 90 20.658 V 2.006 C 90 0.898 89.102 0 87.994 0 z\" transform=\" matrix(1 0 0 1 0 0) \" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><path d=\"M 65.626 37.8 v 49.45 c 0 1.519 1.231 2.75 2.75 2.75 h 8.782 c 1.519 0 2.75 -1.231 2.75 -2.75 V 23.518 L 65.626 37.8 z\" transform=\" matrix(1 0 0 1 0 0) \" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><path d=\"M 47.115 56.312 V 87.25 c 0 1.519 1.231 2.75 2.75 2.75 h 8.782 c 1.519 0 2.75 -1.231 2.75 -2.75 V 42.03 L 47.115 56.312 z\" transform=\" matrix(1 0 0 1 0 0) \" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><path d=\"M 39.876 60.503 c -1.937 0 -3.757 -0.754 -5.127 -2.124 l -6.146 -6.145 V 87.25 c 0 1.519 1.231 2.75 2.75 2.75 h 8.782 c 1.519 0 2.75 -1.231 2.75 -2.75 V 59.844 C 41.952 60.271 40.933 60.503 39.876 60.503 z\" transform=\" matrix(1 0 0 1 0 0) \" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><path d=\"M 22.937 46.567 L 11.051 58.453 c -0.298 0.298 -0.621 0.562 -0.959 0.8 V 87.25 c 0 1.519 1.231 2.75 2.75 2.75 h 8.782 c 1.519 0 2.75 -1.231 2.75 -2.75 V 48.004 L 22.937 46.567 z\" transform=\" matrix(1 0 0 1 0 0) \" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><\/g><\/svg><\/p>\n<div class=\"Collapsible-proLivePlayerCloseOrExpand\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><iframe title=\"The Nasdaq Composite, 1-day\" src=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/appchart?symbol=.IXIC&amp;range=1D&amp;type=mountain&amp;embedded=true&amp;$DEVICE$=undefined\" height=\"460\" scrolling=\"no\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"border:0;width:100%\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>The Nasdaq Composite, 1-day<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>&#8220;We&#8217;ve got a Fed meeting in six days, and I think investors should not be in a hurry to buy anything,&#8221; he added. &#8220;There&#8217;s times where you can just sit it out and be patient.&#8221;<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"ArticleBody-smallSubtitle\">&#8216;A readthrough&#8217;<\/h3>\n<p>Market participants looking for insights into the Fed&#8217;s outlook are closely monitoring the <span class=\"QuoteInBody-quoteNameContainer\" data-test=\"QuoteInBody\" id=\"RegularArticle-QuoteInBody-10\">2-year U.S. Treasury<span class=\"QuoteInBody-inlineButton\"><span class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-watchlistContainer\" id=\"-WatchlistDropdown\" data-analytics-id=\"-WatchlistDropdown\"><button class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-watchlistButton\" aria-label=\"Add To Watchlist\" data-testid=\"dropdown-btn\"><span class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-addWatchListFromTag\"\/><\/button><\/span><\/span><\/span> yield. The yield, which rose more than 6 basis points on Thursday, offers &#8220;a readthrough on what the Fed might do next,&#8221; said Ross Mayfield, an investment strategist at Baird.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"Collapsible-proliveCollapsableContainer\" role=\"button\" tabindex=\"0\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"256\" height=\"256\" viewbox=\"0 0 256 256\" aria-labelledby=\"title desc\" role=\"img\" focusable=\"false\" preserveaspectratio=\"xMinYMin\" class=\"Collapsible-stockChartIcon\"><title>Stock Chart Icon<\/title><desc>Stock chart icon<\/desc><g transform=\"translate(1.4065934065934016 1.4065934065934016) scale(2.81 2.81)\"><path d=\"M 87.994 0 H 69.342 c -1.787 0 -2.682 2.16 -1.418 3.424 l 5.795 5.795 l -33.82 33.82 L 28.056 31.196 l -3.174 -3.174 c -1.074 -1.074 -2.815 -1.074 -3.889 0 L 0.805 48.209 c -1.074 1.074 -1.074 2.815 0 3.889 l 3.174 3.174 c 1.074 1.074 2.815 1.074 3.889 0 l 15.069 -15.069 l 14.994 14.994 c 1.074 1.074 2.815 1.074 3.889 0 l 1.614 -1.614 c 0.083 -0.066 0.17 -0.125 0.247 -0.202 l 37.1 -37.1 l 5.795 5.795 C 87.84 23.34 90 22.445 90 20.658 V 2.006 C 90 0.898 89.102 0 87.994 0 z\" transform=\" matrix(1 0 0 1 0 0) \" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><path d=\"M 65.626 37.8 v 49.45 c 0 1.519 1.231 2.75 2.75 2.75 h 8.782 c 1.519 0 2.75 -1.231 2.75 -2.75 V 23.518 L 65.626 37.8 z\" transform=\" matrix(1 0 0 1 0 0) \" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><path d=\"M 47.115 56.312 V 87.25 c 0 1.519 1.231 2.75 2.75 2.75 h 8.782 c 1.519 0 2.75 -1.231 2.75 -2.75 V 42.03 L 47.115 56.312 z\" transform=\" matrix(1 0 0 1 0 0) \" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><path d=\"M 39.876 60.503 c -1.937 0 -3.757 -0.754 -5.127 -2.124 l -6.146 -6.145 V 87.25 c 0 1.519 1.231 2.75 2.75 2.75 h 8.782 c 1.519 0 2.75 -1.231 2.75 -2.75 V 59.844 C 41.952 60.271 40.933 60.503 39.876 60.503 z\" transform=\" matrix(1 0 0 1 0 0) \" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><path d=\"M 22.937 46.567 L 11.051 58.453 c -0.298 0.298 -0.621 0.562 -0.959 0.8 V 87.25 c 0 1.519 1.231 2.75 2.75 2.75 h 8.782 c 1.519 0 2.75 -1.231 2.75 -2.75 V 48.004 L 22.937 46.567 z\" transform=\" matrix(1 0 0 1 0 0) \" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><\/g><\/svg><\/p>\n<div class=\"Collapsible-proLivePlayerCloseOrExpand\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static-redesign.cnbcfm.com\/dist\/a54b41835a8b60db28c2.svg\" class=\"Collapsible-dismissButton\" alt=\"hide content\" title=\"\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><iframe title=\"U.S. 2-year Treasury, 1-month\" src=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/appchart?symbol=US2Y&amp;range=1M&amp;type=mountain&amp;embedded=true&amp;$DEVICE$=undefined\" height=\"460\" scrolling=\"no\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"border:0;width:100%\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>U.S. 2-year Treasury, 1-month<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>While Mayfield said investors don&#8217;t need to worry about an interest rate move next week, September feels like a &#8220;live&#8221; meeting for the Fed.<\/p>\n<p>Kalshi traders have similarly increased their bets of a September quarter point increase in recent days. Odds of such a move at that meeting rose to 48% midday on Thursday, up from about 30% a week ago.<\/p>\n<p>To be sure, economists&#8217; interest rate outlook through 2026 doesn&#8217;t signal an environment with tighter monetary policy.<\/p>\n<p>The consensus forecast remains that the Fed won&#8217;t hike rates this year, according to FactSet. In 2027, economists anticipate the central bank will lower borrowing costs by half a percentage point. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"ArticleBody-googlePreferredSourceContainer\" data-module=\"GooglePreferredSource\" data-id=\"RegularArticle-GooglePreferredSource-5\">Choose CNBC as your preferred source on Google and never miss a moment from the most trusted name in business news.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A television station broadcasts Kevin Warsh, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, speaking after a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, US, on Wednesday, June 17, 2026. Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images Investors are increasingly preparing for the Federal Reserve [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4975,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[260,2931,1747,1241,2381,1248],"class_list":["post-4974","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blog","tag-higher","tag-hike","tag-odds","tag-oil","tag-rips","tag-surge"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.finznest.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4974","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.finznest.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.finznest.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.finznest.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.finznest.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4974"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.finznest.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4974\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.finznest.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4975"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.finznest.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4974"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.finznest.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4974"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.finznest.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4974"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}