{"id":4978,"date":"2026-07-23T20:34:17","date_gmt":"2026-07-23T20:34:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.finznest.com\/blog\/shortsighted-stock-market-can-no-longer-brush-off-war-investors-say\/"},"modified":"2026-07-23T20:34:17","modified_gmt":"2026-07-23T20:34:17","slug":"shortsighted-stock-market-can-no-longer-brush-off-war-investors-say","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.finznest.com\/blog\/shortsighted-stock-market-can-no-longer-brush-off-war-investors-say\/","title":{"rendered":"Shortsighted stock market can no longer brush off war, investors say"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"RegularArticle-ArticleBody-5\" data-module=\"ArticleBody\" data-test=\"articleBody-2\" data-analytics=\"RegularArticle-articleBody-5-2\"><span class=\"HighlightShare-hidden\" style=\"top:0;left:0\"\/><\/p>\n<div class=\"InlineImage-imageEmbed\" id=\"ArticleBody-InlineImage-108337404\" data-test=\"InlineImage\">\n<div class=\"InlineImage-wrapper\">\n<div>\n<p>Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 20, 2026.  <\/p>\n<p>Brendan McDermid | Reuters<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>Major U.S. stock indexes tumbled on Thursday as investors began to price in the consequences of a renewed and prolonged conflict in the Middle East.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>While the U.S. has conducted strikes against Iran 12 nights in a row \u2014 sending both oil prices and Treasury yields higher \u2014 domestic equities had mostly brushed off the idea of the war between the two countries heating up again, staying flat while oil jumped.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>That changed on Thursday, though, when <span class=\"QuoteInBody-quoteNameContainer\" data-test=\"QuoteInBody\" id=\"RegularArticle-QuoteInBody-3\">Brent Crude<span class=\"QuoteInBody-inlineButton\"><span class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-watchlistContainer\" id=\"-WatchlistDropdown\" data-analytics-id=\"-WatchlistDropdown\"><button class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-watchlistButton\" aria-label=\"Add To Watchlist\" data-testid=\"dropdown-btn\"><span class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-addWatchListFromTag\"\/><\/button><\/span><\/span><\/span> futures jumped above $100 per barrel and the 10-year Treasury yield broke through 4.7%, hitting its highest level since January 2025, after reports of attacks against tankers off the coast of Saudi Arabia. The S&amp;P 500 headed for its biggest decline in a month.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"InlineImage-imageEmbed InlineImage-inlineInfographic\" id=\"ArticleBody-InlineImage-108339313\" data-test=\"InlineImage\">\n<div class=\"InlineImage-wrapper\">\n<div class=\"InlineImage-imagePlaceholder\" style=\"padding-bottom:54.64480874316939%\">\n<div><button class=\"InlineImage-closeEnlargedImage\"><svg width=\"20\" height=\"20\" viewbox=\"0 0 20 20\" fill=\"#002F6C\" aria-labelledby=\"title desc\" role=\"img\" focusable=\"false\" data-analytic-id=\"expand-icon\" class=\"InlineImage-background\"><title>Zoom In Icon<\/title><desc>Arrows pointing outwards<\/desc><circle cx=\"10\" cy=\"10\" r=\"10\" fill=\"white\" stroke=\"#002F6C\"\/><path d=\"M9.20185 10.7982C8.96049 10.5568 8.57037 10.5568 8.32901 10.7982L5.67901 13.4482V11.2346C5.67901 10.8938 5.40308 10.6173 5.06173 10.6173C4.72037 10.6173 4.44444 10.8938 4.44444 11.2346V14.9383C4.44444 15.279 4.72037 15.5556 5.06173 15.5556H8.76543C9.10679 15.5556 9.38271 15.279 9.38271 14.9383C9.38271 14.5975 9.10679 14.321 8.76543 14.321H6.55185L9.20185 11.671C9.44321 11.4296 9.44321 11.0395 9.20185 10.7982ZM14.9383 4.44446H11.2346C10.8932 4.44446 10.6173 4.721 10.6173 5.06174C10.6173 5.40248 10.8932 5.67903 11.2346 5.67903H13.4481L10.7981 8.32903C10.5568 8.57038 10.5568 8.96051 10.7981 9.20187C10.9185 9.32224 11.0765 9.38273 11.2346 9.38273C11.3926 9.38273 11.5506 9.32224 11.671 9.20187L14.321 6.55187V8.76545C14.321 9.10619 14.5969 9.38273 14.9383 9.38273C15.2796 9.38273 15.5556 9.10619 15.5556 8.76545V5.06174C15.5556 4.721 15.2796 4.44446 14.9383 4.44446Z\"\/><\/svg><\/button><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>Oil prices and S&amp;P 500<\/p>\n<p>FactSet<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>&#8220;These problems became too big to ignore,&#8221; said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, about the move in stocks on Thursday. &#8220;It&#8217;s too hard to ignore $100 oil. It&#8217;s too hard to ignore 10-year rates that are above 4.70%. It&#8217;s too hard for the stock market to ignore 30-year rates that are solidly above 5%.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"QuoteInBody-quoteNameContainer\" data-test=\"QuoteInBody\" id=\"RegularArticle-QuoteInBody-6\">Western Texas Intermediate Crude futures<span class=\"QuoteInBody-inlineButton\"><span class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-watchlistContainer\" id=\"-WatchlistDropdown\" data-analytics-id=\"-WatchlistDropdown\"><button class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-watchlistButton\" aria-label=\"Add To Watchlist\" data-testid=\"dropdown-btn\"><span class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-addWatchListFromTag\"\/><\/button><\/span><\/span><\/span> jumped 6% to $92 per barrel, up more than 28% from lows below $70 per barrel they hit earlier this month. The S&amp;P 500 is now down about 2% since the consecutive evening strikes by the U.S. began on July 12.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>In March, after the U.S-Iran war began, the <span class=\"QuoteInBody-quoteNameContainer\" data-test=\"QuoteInBody\" id=\"RegularArticle-QuoteInBody-7\">S&amp;P 500<span class=\"QuoteInBody-inlineButton\"><span class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-watchlistContainer\" id=\"-WatchlistDropdown\" data-analytics-id=\"-WatchlistDropdown\"><button class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-watchlistButton\" aria-label=\"Add To Watchlist\" data-testid=\"dropdown-btn\"><span class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-addWatchListFromTag\"\/><\/button><\/span><\/span><\/span> fell more than 7.5% at its low point as oil surged nearly 70% and investors worried about stagflation, where higher energy prices would reignite inflation while elevated costs at the gas pump would weigh on consumer spending.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>A series of de-escalation announcements between the two countries and a reignited faith in the artificial intelligence trade led the S&amp;P to ferociously rebound in April and May, even as hostilities at various times continued. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<h2 class=\"ArticleBody-subtitle\">Betting on Trump&#8217;s off-ramp<\/h2>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>The big factor, however, was a bet that President Donald Trump would find an off-ramp to end the war rather than face the economic and political consequences of a prolonged conflict.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;We have consistently argued since 2nd half of March to use the equity weakness brought on by the Iran conflict to buy into, as the off-ramp and the eventual deal were likely, in our view,&#8221; wrote JPMorgan equity strategists in a note earlier this month. &#8220;The risks of renewed flareups remain, but we believe one should keep using any dips on the back of adverse geopolitical headlines in order to add.&#8221;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"Collapsible-proliveCollapsableContainer\" role=\"button\" tabindex=\"0\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"256\" height=\"256\" viewbox=\"0 0 256 256\" aria-labelledby=\"title desc\" role=\"img\" focusable=\"false\" preserveaspectratio=\"xMinYMin\" class=\"Collapsible-stockChartIcon\"><title>Stock Chart Icon<\/title><desc>Stock chart icon<\/desc><g transform=\"translate(1.4065934065934016 1.4065934065934016) scale(2.81 2.81)\"><path d=\"M 87.994 0 H 69.342 c -1.787 0 -2.682 2.16 -1.418 3.424 l 5.795 5.795 l -33.82 33.82 L 28.056 31.196 l -3.174 -3.174 c -1.074 -1.074 -2.815 -1.074 -3.889 0 L 0.805 48.209 c -1.074 1.074 -1.074 2.815 0 3.889 l 3.174 3.174 c 1.074 1.074 2.815 1.074 3.889 0 l 15.069 -15.069 l 14.994 14.994 c 1.074 1.074 2.815 1.074 3.889 0 l 1.614 -1.614 c 0.083 -0.066 0.17 -0.125 0.247 -0.202 l 37.1 -37.1 l 5.795 5.795 C 87.84 23.34 90 22.445 90 20.658 V 2.006 C 90 0.898 89.102 0 87.994 0 z\" transform=\" matrix(1 0 0 1 0 0) \" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><path d=\"M 65.626 37.8 v 49.45 c 0 1.519 1.231 2.75 2.75 2.75 h 8.782 c 1.519 0 2.75 -1.231 2.75 -2.75 V 23.518 L 65.626 37.8 z\" transform=\" matrix(1 0 0 1 0 0) \" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><path d=\"M 47.115 56.312 V 87.25 c 0 1.519 1.231 2.75 2.75 2.75 h 8.782 c 1.519 0 2.75 -1.231 2.75 -2.75 V 42.03 L 47.115 56.312 z\" transform=\" matrix(1 0 0 1 0 0) \" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><path d=\"M 39.876 60.503 c -1.937 0 -3.757 -0.754 -5.127 -2.124 l -6.146 -6.145 V 87.25 c 0 1.519 1.231 2.75 2.75 2.75 h 8.782 c 1.519 0 2.75 -1.231 2.75 -2.75 V 59.844 C 41.952 60.271 40.933 60.503 39.876 60.503 z\" transform=\" matrix(1 0 0 1 0 0) \" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><path d=\"M 22.937 46.567 L 11.051 58.453 c -0.298 0.298 -0.621 0.562 -0.959 0.8 V 87.25 c 0 1.519 1.231 2.75 2.75 2.75 h 8.782 c 1.519 0 2.75 -1.231 2.75 -2.75 V 48.004 L 22.937 46.567 z\" transform=\" matrix(1 0 0 1 0 0) \" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><\/g><\/svg><\/p>\n<div class=\"Collapsible-proLivePlayerCloseOrExpand\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><iframe title=\"S&amp;P 500 since Feb. 27, 2026\" src=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/appchart?symbol=.SPX&amp;dtLeft=2026-02-27&amp;dtRight=now&amp;type=mountain&amp;embedded=true&amp;$DEVICE$=undefined\" height=\"460\" scrolling=\"no\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"border:0;width:100%\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>S&amp;P 500 since Feb. 27, 2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>Sameer Samana, head of global equities and real assets at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, now thinks traders need to reconsider the economic fears they had in March. <\/p>\n<p>Investors should be worried about both higher inflation and the impact higher gas prices may have on consumers, he said. Samana added the reignited conflict is a reason to prepare for a larger drawdown in equities.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Sosnick said that stocks on Thursday were also likely pricing in a tighter borrowing environment for companies. Chances for a rate hike by the Federal Reserve next week according to CME&#8217;S FedWatch tool are up to almost 38%, while odds for a hike at the central bank&#8217;s September meeting are at more than 80%.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>A week ago, those odds were priced at about 12% and 53%, respectively<\/p>\n<p>Back in March, many analysts were surprised that the stock market didn&#8217;t react more to the conflict initially, and concluded that the U.S. economy was in better shape than in the past to handle energy shocks. That&#8217;s a bet that Michael Tanney, CEO at investment advisory firm Pereon Wealth, is taking again.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;In the short term, the elevated spike is more meaningful to the headlines than client portfolios,&#8221; Tanney said. &#8220;If we have a sustained price above $120, that&#8217;s the breaking point where you&#8217;ll see serious trickle down effects.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><em>\u2014 CNBC&#8217;s Deena Zaidi, Tanaya Macheel, Ananya Chetia contributed reporting<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"ArticleBody-googlePreferredSourceContainer\" data-module=\"GooglePreferredSource\" data-id=\"RegularArticle-GooglePreferredSource-5\">Choose CNBC as your preferred source on Google and never miss a moment from the most trusted name in business news.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 20, 2026. Brendan McDermid | Reuters Major U.S. stock indexes tumbled on Thursday as investors began to price in the consequences of a renewed and prolonged conflict in the Middle East.\u00a0 While the U.S. has conducted strikes [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4979,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[3663,335,3123,285,3662,229,780],"class_list":["post-4978","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blog","tag-brush","tag-investors","tag-longer","tag-market","tag-shortsighted","tag-stock","tag-war"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.finznest.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4978","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.finznest.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.finznest.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.finznest.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.finznest.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4978"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.finznest.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4978\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.finznest.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4979"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.finznest.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4978"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.finznest.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4978"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.finznest.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4978"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}