22V Research sees levels for bond yields and oil prices that could throw cold water on the bull market — and the firm is warning that they’re not too far off. Dennis DeBusschere, chief market strategist at the firm, said investors he surveyed expect the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rising to 5% or oil prices topping $115 per barrel to cause “demand destruction,” or gross domestic product growth falling below 1% over multiple quarters. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield on Tuesday climbed to its highest level since early 2025, and it was last seen trading at about 4.65%. DeBusschere said the yield hitting 5% “could be upon us shortly” if the Strait of Hormuz — the key passageway for crude that’s been mostly shuttered since the U.S.-Iran War began — is not reopened soon. US10Y YTD mountain 10-year Treasury yield in 2026 “The unusually sharp increase in 10yr yields over the past week has increased tail risk,” DeBusschere wrote in a Tuesday note to clients. “The economic known unknown is how intense and long lasting supply constraints will be. Something could break.” When global 10-year yields move as suddenly as they have recently, DeBusschere said investors become worried that “something bad can happen.” Brent crude futures, a global oil benchmark, traded above $110 per barrel on Tuesday. Brent has soared more than 54% since the war began through Monday’s settle. @LCO.1 YTD mountain Brent in 2026 Risks for stocks Stocks pulled back in Tuesday’s session due to pressure from rising rates. The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield hit its highest level in almost 19 years. But the major indexes still sit near all-time high levels, which can be attributed to continued expectations for strong GDP growth, according to Goldman Sachs chief global equity strategist Peter Oppenheimer. Goldman predicts nominal global GDP growth will come in at 5.9% for 2026, up from 4.7% last year. That’s driven by “extraordinary” growth in technology and energy earnings, Oppenheimer said. To be sure, Oppenheimer said the market rally on the back of these sectors is highly concentrated, with telecommunication, media and technology accounts for 85% of the S & P 500 ‘s return this year. Stocks could be in for a drop — especially if inflation runs hot, he said. The strategist also said that another sharp advance in bond yields creates “meaningful risk” for stock investors. “Despite the fact that the Momentum rallies across regions has been a reflection of strong underlying profit growth, it does raise the risks in the market of a correction on the back of a deterioration in the growth and inflation mix,” Oppenheimer said.
These are the bond yield and oil levels that could break the bull market
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